Allan Lichtman, better known as the "Polling Nostradamus," has been nine for nine in predicting every presidential outcome since 1984, but this year, he prognosticated incorrectly. Early this September, the political historian predicted that Harris would win, and as of November 6, former President Donald Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States.
Based on his 13 true-false keys to the White House, which are independent of the polls and trackers, Lichtman made his forecast based on his understanding that Harris and the Democratic ticket only had three false keys. Therefore, this would automatically render her the likely winner of the presidential race.
Allan Lichtman doubled down on his stance in the following weeks, up until D-day, but as he saw his prediction unfurl on live stream, he expressed shock. On Wednesday morning, he revealed his decision to take some time off to USA Today. He said:
"Right now I am taking some time off, today, Wednesday, through my live show, Thursday. My aim is to assess why I was wrong, what we can learn from this era and what the election means for the future of our country going forward..."
However, the internet reacted brutally to his mistake, and many blamed him for not relying on objective data. Here's what one user had to say:
"Retire, loser."
Several others chimed in to echo the sentiments:
"This clown was blinded by his emotions and refused to pay attention to objective data. His model is trash," one user claimed.
"He misapplied his keys on purpose to help Harris. The 13 keys aren’t the problem. HE is the problem," someone else dissed.
"He was so confident that he couldn’t be wrong too lol," one user jested.
"The funny thing is…. His keys predicted Trump winning. His bias clouded his judgement," someone else asserted.
Several people online weighed in to point out just where the professor went wrong:
"Yea, you cooked yourself with your clearly biased polling. You are now officially irrelevant," someone commented.
"Do they really lack this much self awareness? Do they believe their own lies? He let his emotions cloud his judgement so bad that he truly believed she would win?" another user questioned.
"Looks like Allan Lichtman’s streak is finally broken! He might have called past elections accurately, but this time his "keys" system just couldn't keep up with the pulse of America. It’s refreshing to see him owning up to his mistake, but it’s also a clear reminder that even the so-called experts can get it wrong. Maybe it's time for him to retire those "keys" altogether and leave the future predictions to the American people themselves," one user tweeted.
Others were disappointed in his apparent "bias," noting that the answer had been in front of him all along, and he chose not to see it.
Allan Lichtman expresses shock and says he "doesn't get" what went wrong
The American university professor was visibly appalled in his six-hour live stream, hosted by his son, Sam Lichtman, as seen in his following sentences:
"I don’t get it, I’m not doing any interviews, I’m done. You know what happens if Trump wins? He won’t serve a full term, he’ll turn it over to JD Vance. I’m going to sleep all day tomorrow."
Allan Lichtman devised the "13 Keys to the White House" system that helps in evaluating just who is going to take to the office next. This year, he was under the impression that the odds were in Harris' favor in several of the true or false statements.
In speaking about the moment Trump was declared the winner in Pennsylvania, Allan Lichtman said,
"This is the first moment of the night where I’ve lost hope a little bit. Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow. And I’m not doing any interviews.”
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Later on Wednesday, Allan Lichtman took to X to address the mishap, announcing another discussion on Thursday at 9 p.m. ET. He thanked his followers and "all the loyal members, subscribers, and viewers of our live show."
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